We are approaching the end to a year like no other. We know a lot of people are ready to kick 2020 to the curb, but before we do that, we have our final home sales prediction and analysis to wrap up 2020 and jump into 2021.
Expansion and Growth
Specifically, in the real estate industry, we have seen so much grit, compassion, and expansion as we all pivoted to meet the needs of the year. While things were frightening (to say the least) in Q2, this industry has bounced back with a lot of fire.
Since September, sold listings have eclipsed nearly 100K transactions higher than they were in the same month in 2019.
“This is a gigantic delta and sign of the boom of the housing market,” said York Baur, MoxiWorks CEO. “And 2019 was no slacker year, it was also very strong.”
While the inventory shortage has been and remains a concern, movement in the market is still happening and will continue.
Home Sales Predictor
Based on the activity inside MoxiPresent during October and November, the MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor predicts there will be 530K home sales in December and 415K in January.
Source: MoxiWorks Dec-20 Jan-21 Home Sales Predictor
The presentation run rate in October predicts that December will close out higher than November. And while we predict a dip for January, this is typical with every year based on a bigger push in October and the beginning of November to get stuff done before the holidays and the new year hits. That’ll be exacerbated this year due to the unusually short time between the Thanksgiving and Christmas holidays in 2020.
If our prediction is accurate that will put the total number of home sales for 2020 at 5.53 million. There were 5.43 million homes sold in 2019 according to NAR. "Achieving this level of growth during a pandemic year that includes a gaping hole in the market in Q2 is a spectacular performance on the part of the residential real estate industry," said Baur.
Looking to 2021
As we move into 2021 it’s important to focus on the pieces of your business that you can control. We learn during every downturn, recession, or set back that the strong survive. When you can set your business up for success to weather any storm you will always bounce back.
From reviewing our Home Sales Predictor data this year we now know that you have a secret weapon. You can look at the number of presentations your team has done and know how many sold listings you will see two months out, which means you can know ahead of time if your agents are going to be hitting their goals or falling short. Instead of reflecting on your data, you can use the leading indicators in this data to see what sort of action needs to be taken ahead of time.
Use the data you have to your advantage. Continue to look for ways to think about your numbers in new ways to stay ahead of whatever curveball gets thrown our way next.
Cheers to a safe, healthy, and prosperous New Year!
The Home Sales Predictor is a brand-new set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.