We know what you are thinking. We are thinking it, too. 650K home sales in May?
But this is what our predictor says. Based on the activity inside our products, we predict there will be 650,000 home sales in May.
We know that feels high when inventory is low, but as York Baur and Matthew Ferrara discussed last month inventory isn’t the problem, it’s listings. And from the activity we are seeing in our products it seems like listings are on the climb.
In March we ended up with 506K home sales (we predicted 483k so we were within 5% accuracy) which was a 30% increase from the number of home sales in February 2021 and was a 21% increase year-over-year from March 2020. It feels good to see that seasonal increase begin after the strange months we had in January and February. And looking ahead to April and May it looks like we are really back on the upswing.
April & May Predictions
For April we predict there will 565k home sales which will be an 11% increase in home sales from March 2021 and a 57% increase year-over-year from April 2020. In May our prediction of 650k home sales will be a 15% increase from April and an 82% increase YOY from May 2020. Both a 57% and 82% increase may sound extreme, but it’s unfortunately due to what a scary and uncertain time it was this time last year so it makes complete sense we would see that dramatic of an increase YOY.
But the good news is everything is continuing to trend up in every way when it comes to real estate activity.
As the light at the end of the pandemic tunnel continues to shine brighter more and more homes will be bought and sold as people are starting to re-evaluate how they spend their time, how they work and especially where they live. It’s also clear that the economy “feels” stronger which could be a good sign for home sales and what we are expecting we will see in May.
Let’s continue to all make the market.
The Home Sales Predictor is a brand-new set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.