Real estate and Spring have historically had a strong relationship. Just like Mother Nature, each Spring we all come out of our pseudo-hibernation, fresh and energized (maybe we aren’t feeling as fresh this Spring after almost a year of psuedo-hibernation, but I digress). Based on the trends we are seeing this Spring season of real estate transactions is poised to be a stellar showing.
But, before we get to that, let’s take a quick look at what happened in February.
The Wild Winter Storms of February
Last month we predicted there would be 384K US home sales and we ended up very close with 383K US home sales. This means our prediction was within 0.03% of the total number of homes sold in February.
Overall this ended up being a 1% decrease in the number of home sales month over month from January but was still a 13% increase year over year compared to the number of home sales in February of 2020 (which was just before the pandemic started in the US).
While we typically see an increase in home sales between January and February we aren’t concerned about this 1% decrease since it was actually a drastic increase from the 31% decrease in home sales we saw month over month in January.
And, we also have to remember that February was an intense month full of unpredictable Winter weather across the entire country. Texas saw historic low temperatures that had thousands of people without electricity or potable water for days on end just to name one of the drastic storms and its impact.
But as we said Spring is strong and we are seeing a strong climb in our predictions, even with the tight inventory squeeze.
March & April Home Sales Prediction
Looking at the predictions we expect to see a 26% increase month over month of home sales in March with 483K home sales. This might sound like a huge jump, but even in 2020 there was a 24% increase month over month between February and March so this is right in line with the Spring season in the real estate market.
As we look to April and the one-year anniversary of the pandemic begins to set in across the nation, we predict we will see a 46% increase YOY for the number of home sales APR with 532K home sales.
We all remember what it felt like a year ago. When things shut down. Life became completely uncertain and that dip in April and May home sales had us all wondering what would happen to the housing market.
Thankfully as we all know that dip didn’t last for long, and I think it’s important to take a moment and recall the absolute resiliency this industry showed.
Now a year later in April of 2021 things may still be teetering on uncertainty but the good news is there is a lot of hope on the horizon.
Just this week it was announced that all adults in the US will be eligible for the vaccine by May 1st and $1.9 trillion dollars is rolling into the economy. Things are happening that are going to stimulate the economy, save more lives and help people get back to some sort of normalcy.
As we inch back close to some sort of “normal” and life becomes a little less uncertain people are going to become more comfortable making more and more decisions with some certainty about buying or selling their homes.
So, now is the time.
Pick up the phone. Get in touch with your sphere. The inventory is out there.
Cheers to a prosperous Spring for all!
The Home Sales Predictor is a brand-new set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.