Coming out of hiberation? February Home Sales Predictor

We’re back with another round of predictions. And right off the bat we’ve got to brag that our data team was able to dial in this wacky market and was within 2%(!) of the actual for January. We ended up closing out the month with 286K (we predicted 290K) home sales across the U.S.

This was a 27% decrease from December which is pretty on par with the seasonality we have seen in the past. In both 2022 and 2021 January saw a 29% decrease from December, there was a 23% decrease in 2020 and a 20% in 2019. So not to fret. And, we predict things will start to perk back up in February and March.

We predict there will be 292K home sales across the US in February which would be a 3% increase over January. And then March is looking even busier with a 29% increase to 375K homes sold.

Full graph below —

Feb 2023 MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor

Source: MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor Feb 2023

That’s a 36% decrease YOY for both February and March, but it’s great to see that we’re trending up after the cooling of the last few months.

Speaking of year-over-year comparisons, it’s promising to see we are still trending around 2016/2017 levels and have yet to (and looks like we won’t) drop below them.

US Home Sales YOY 2016-2023

Source: MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor Feb 2023


It’s worth noting as well that in 2016 the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 3.65%. This tells us that the fact that transactions are the same this year with a 6%+ interest rate is proof that while the market is of course interest rate-sensitive, people move for life event reasons regardless of interest rates, and will continue to do so.

Looking forward to seeing what happens in the coming months. Will we be back in line with 2018/2019 by mid-year? What are you seeing in your market? Let us know.

Until next month.