Did we finally reach the bottom? July Home Sales Predictor

Top things to know this month:  

• There were 521K closed listings in June (the MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor was within 2% with its prediction).  

• The most recent model predicts there will be 478K home sales across the U.S. in July & 505K in August.   
• We also predict we’ve hit the bottom and are headed back up 📈📈📈

Maybe we’re just feeling spicy since it’s July and the sun is shining bright, but we’re calling it — we’ve hit the bottom. Home sales remain low but stable. It’s been that way for months as transactions have hovered between 2016 and 2017 levels and continue to creep up. Of course, inventory remains the large elephant in the room, but as agents continue to encourage their clients to sell, the more inventory that will continue to open up. And we’re already seeing it in some areas, and overall inventory totals have been steadily increasing since March. So as far as the intel suggests, things are headed in the right direction.

Now for the numbers:  

• In June, there were 518K home sales (just 2 percent off the most recent Home Sales Predictor of 510K).  
• In July the model is showing an expected 478K home sales across the U.S.

In August the model shows there will be 505K home sales across the U.S.

As we’ve said many times, real estate is the first in and the first out. Our industry started feeling the pain back in mid-2022 when our data showed agent activity slowed alongside transactions. It’s been positive to see both of these data points increase over the last few months. So, while other parts of the economy are stuck in the thick of it, the real estate industry as a whole is starting to open back up and it’s a matter of time before other areas do so as well.

Until next month.

This data correlates user activity within MoxiWorks products to the predicted number of closed listings two months into the future.
Learn more about and subscribe here: Home Sales Predictor.