Don’t Sleep on the Spring Slump; May Home Sales Predictor

Top things to know this month:

  • Home sales reported a bit of a Spring slump, falling 9 percent to 412K in April.
  • This is largely driven by critically low inventory levels.
  • A pick-up of summer activity is still expected. According to the MoxiWorks Homes Sales Predictor, home sales are expected to jump 25 percent to nearly 517K in May.
  • Double-digit increases are expected to continue in June, with MoxiWorks predicting homes sales to increase another 13 percent month-over-month to 586K.
  • PSA to agents: there’s never been a more important time to engage your sphere and help buyers and sellers understand their options during these kinds of market conditions. The inventory is out there. Go get it.

Let’s set the stage with this first: something MoxiWorks isn’t in the practice of doing is looking at things through rose-colored glasses. We’ll give it to you straight. The fact of the matter is, the residential real estate market is still digging itself out of a pandemic hole – According to the Home Sales Predictor, . Seasonally we don’t usually see dips in April (unless you count last year when we saw a slight dip of just 2K listings).

The real estate market is certainly calibrating to a new normal, but we can’t deny that rising interest rates and the recession cloud that continues to loom over the US economy is putting a damper on many people’s home-buying and selling decisions, and ultimately holding back inventory.

So, yes, headwinds persist. But here’s the good news: there is still plenty of opportunity as low inventory is a solvable problem. And the seasonally busier summer months are primed to deliver. See below for the rising green line putting us right between 2019 and 2022 Summer levels.

MoxiWorks May Home Sales Predictor

Looking ahead, the MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor shows a 25 percent increase month-over-month to nearly 517K in May and another 13 percent increase in June to 586K home sales.

MoxiWorks May Home Sales Predictor

So, what should the real estate community be doing to make the most of it? According to MoxiWorks CEO, York Baur, this isn’t a time to sit back and see what happens. Agents are the key and now is the time for action.

“There has never been a time in modern real estate history that it has been more important for agents to engage their sphere. Especially when it comes to annual property reviews. Agents are in a unique position to explain the market, show what we can control and illuminate what’s possible for a potential seller in their given market. We haven’t been doing enough of this, and people are scared of the uncertainty, which is one of the reasons we have critically low inventory. We have to remember, financial decisions are not always the primary driver of home transactions. People always have and always will move for a number of reasons. Show them what is possible. Be the expert.”

Until next month.

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