Fall-ing Number of Home Sales?

We may all be settling into our cozy sweaters and Fall activities, but home sales aren’t settling down, just yet.

In September our prediction was within 1.5% (564K home sales) with the result being 572K home sales across the U.S. That’s a 6% decrease in home sales from August to September and a 5% decrease year over year. And this all makes sense as Redfin reported a 23% decrease in active listings during September. And while that would make it seem like we are finally settling into some sort of normal seasonality, our data suggests otherwise.

October/November prediction

Based on the activity inside our MoxiWorks products, in October we predict there will be 594K home sales across the U.S. which is a 4% increase from September and only a 2% decrease year over year.

Keeping Current Matters also recently reported on  realtor.com data saying, “The number of homes available for sale should increase. According to realtor.com, you can expect to see more new listings come to market the week of October 3. The findings estimate we’ll see roughly 17.6% more homes available than we saw at the start of the year. This means, while home prices are still appreciating overall, you may see some homes with price adjustments from eager sellers. The process of closing a house takes time. To close before end of year, sellers may be more motivated this October.”

October MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor

Source: MoxiWorks Oct-21 Home Sales Predictor

And then looking to November we expect that maybe seasonality will finally kick in with 556K home sales which is a 7% decrease from October, however, it will be 6% more homes sold than in November of 2020.

Closing out 2021 strong

Even as it looks like we might actually settle into some seasonality as we start to round out 2021 there are still nearly 2 million homes to be sold as we are predicting there will be 6.8 million home sales across the U.S. in all of 2021.

We probably sound like a broken record at this point, but it’s true. With this many homes to still be bought and sold this year the more you can engage with your sphere, work on your repeat and referral business, the more of this 2021 slice of the (pumpkin) pie you’ll be enjoying.

The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.

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