Happy Anniversary, HSP! — October 2023 Home Sales Predictor

Top things to know this month:   

  • It’s the Home Sales Predictor’s 3rd birthday! Thanks for being with us.  
  • September home sales were down 3% with 432K  
  • Oct/Nov will continue with seasonal dip
     

This month’s Home Sales Predictor (HSP) is a special edition as it’s been three years of the Home Sales Predictor. We launched this tool after our very talented data team noticed a correlation between presentations created in MoxiPresent and sold listings two months down the road. After doing our due diligence the HSP was born in October of 2020. For three years we’ve been bringing you our predictions each and every month. And, after three years our average accuracy remains within 5%, often even closer. We’re proud of this data and grateful you’re here.

Now time for the numbers.  

Looking back at September there were 432K homes sold across the U.S. This was a 13% decrease from August and a 16% decrease YoY. Even with the decrease YoY, you’ll see we are still hovering between 2016 and 2017 sold listings for this season of the year, which is a good sign that once again we aren’t in a crash. 

Year over Year - October 2023 - Home Sales Predictor Graph

Moving into this month and November, the Home Sales Predictor shows 429K home sales in October (a 1% decrease from September) and 389K in November (a 9% decrease from October, but just 1% decrease YoY). We’re heading into the Winter, which we all know seasonally is slower.  

October MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor 

 Looking towards the end of the year, our model shows we likely won’t reach 5 million homes sold, which is not all that shocking, but it is interesting to note the last time we saw less than 5 millions homes sold was back in 2014 (source).

We continue to see stories trying to equate this year to ‘08, ‘09, ‘10 and that’s simply not the truth. Just look back at the chart above. We have to keep reminding ourselves that while the market feels slow, the numbers we are seeing this year are normal levels when we go back to 2017, we’re not even close to the 2008 days. Agents are still selling homes. People still need to move. Interest rates and inventory are of course an issue, but the real estate industry is not going to come to a halt.  

The data doesn’t lie. Our HSP comes from agent activity, specifically around presentations. The more presentations, the more listings. Keep doing what you’re doing, keep working your sphere to build your pipeline. Be there when your client is ready or needs to transact, regardless of interest rates and inventory.

And if you’re looking for an extra resource, join some renowned leaders from our industry (and probably familiar faces) for a discussion on automation and marketing strategies to persevere in any market. You’ll hear from Jeff Kennedy over at LeadingRE, Stephanie Hrutkay, Director of Digital Resources, McEnearney Associates Realtors, Lindsay Favazza, VP of Marketing, Lamacchia Realty and Tom Flanagan, Chief Innovation Officer, The Group. 
 

You don’t want to miss it. Register here.

Until next month.   

Get a better read on the market with the Home Sales Predictor.

The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product. Delivered to your inbox every month, free.

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