Happy November — it’s a big month here at MoxiWorks as our Home Sales Predictor turned 1. It’s been an exciting year making predictions, gleaning insights, and up-leveling the data we provide to you to help you and your brokerage become more profitable.
As we round the corner on year 2 of this pandemic and recovery, there will likely be more ebbs and flows in the market, but we are also hopeful that we may be finally be falling into more of a “new normal” when it comes to home sales. Only time will tell, but we’re looking forward to seeing the results.
We predicted there would be 594K home sales in October. The actual was 558K which was a decrease of 4% month over month and 9% decrease in sales year over year. Historically we’ve seen a modest uptick in home sales between September and October (in 2020 there was a 1% increase, 2019 a 3% increase, 2018 6% increase).
There could be a number of reasons we saw this decrease this year. Are we possibly heading into a new seasonality impacted by the pandemic? For example, this year we saw a 35% increase month over month between February and March putting us into a strong Spring season. Is that going to be the new norm?
It’s also entirely possible that the majority of people who were going to move because of the pandemic have amended their housing accommodations for now and will instead be focused on traveling/spending time with family during the holidays.
We were also curious what the steep increase in national home sale prices has looked like over the years and were not all that surprised to see the drastic average difference nationwide the second half of 2020 and into this year.
While the drastic increase has slowed some, with this sustained, overly expensive market, could that also be explaining why transaction velocity may be slowing?
It’s also possible that it’s a combination of these high prices, low inventory, bidding wars and institutional buying have all created pessimism among buyers, especially for first-timers that is causing the slowdown.
Based on the activity of agents inside MoxiWorks products we predict there will be 513K home sales in November which would be an 8% decrease in home sales from October and a 2% decrease YOY.
In December we predict there will be 521K home sales which would be an increase of 1% from November, but a 9% decrease year over year looking back at 2020. And, if all of this holds true we are still expecting this to be one of the strongest years of home sales with 6.6 million home sales across the U.S.
Close the year strong
Whether you and your agents are completely wiped from this banner year, or are still full steam ahead, we know that whether we’re in a pandemic, working through the recovery, or in more precedented times, the market is always regionally and locally specific.
Your local experience matters. What’s happening in your market matters. Be that expert for your sphere. Let them know what’s happening in their area and why now is a good time to buy or sell. You have the chance to make this your best year yet for you and your clients.
Cheers to finishing this year strong!
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.