Home Sales Predictor – The housing roller coaster ride continues
2022 has kicked off our year of home sales much more similar to 2021 than we originally predicted.
We predicted there would be 477k home sales in January, but we ended up with 408K home sales, which was just a 1% decrease from the number of homes sold in January of 2021. We originally predicted a 15% increase YOY.
So why the slower start?
Our MoxiWorks data team shared a few speculations:
- Price acceleration has continued while inventory has continued to tighten. We are likely reaching the end of the massive pool of people who would buy houses right now.
- Overall consumer confidence with the direction of the economy
- The five impending interest rate hikes this year
- In January inflation hit 7.5% – the highest it’s been since 1982
- The Omicron variant spikes across the country during January and into February
The good news? Our prediction data comes from agent activity inside our products, so while there appears to be a slight delay in those home sales, that will still bear fruit, most specifically during the month of March.
We predict that February will result in 429k home sales which would be a 5% increase from January. And then we expect to see things tick back up with 613K home sales in March, which will be a 43% increase.
We historically see some of the largest jumps month over month between Feb and Mar, but we haven’t seen a 43% increase in any month over month since Feb/Mar of 2017.
We expect the next three months will likely give us our trends (and maybe new seasonality?) for 2022.
We’ve been on an absolute tear of home sales for essentially the entire duration of the pandemic, and, well, all things must end. Pandemic or otherwise.
We’re keeping a close eye on it all and are eager to see how it turns out.
We’d love to hear from you. Respond and let us know what it’s looking like in your market — is it starting to slow down or are you still busier than ever? What are your predictions for the next few months?
This data is provided by insights from our MoxiWorks data team. All data is based on activity inside our MoxiWorks products that correlates the activity of our users with the number of closed listings two months into the future. Learn more about the Home Sales Predictor here.
The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.