June Home Sales Predictor

We are halfway through 2022. It’s kind of hard to believe, but also not surprising given the rollercoaster of a year it has already been.

We knew going into this year there was no chance it would be like the two previous years when it came to home sales. There simply are not enough homes to keep the same scalding hot demand we have seen since the start of the pandemic. Instead, we are starting to see what we expected would happen this year – a consistent decrease in year-over-year sold listings each month. And now, the state of the economy is exacerbating that decrease.

As we look ahead to our predictions for June and July, our model says we should expect to see 543K closed listings in June and 524k closed listings in July. That’s a 21 and 23% decrease YOY, respectively. July is historically a slower time for home sales, but with inflation, rising interest rates, home prices and lack of inventory we expect to see even fewer homes sold than our model is predicting as factoring uncertainty into a prediction model is rather difficult.

“The banner year agents saw last year isn’t going to continue. But, we also still do not expect to see anything like ’08, ’09. Right now is the time for agents to double down on their systems and processes to nurture their sphere and find listings. Going back to basics and making sure your foundation is solid is going to be critical. We’ve seen this movie before. We know how resilient the housing industry is and we expect it to remain that way through this potential downturn.”

– York Baur, MoxiWorks CEO

There may be more uncertainty ahead, but as York said, this industry is resilient. Brokerages and their agents are equipped to handle whatever comes their way as long as they stick to their foundation and focus on sphere.

Until next month.

The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product.

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