A Historically Average Year – September Home Sales Predictor

It’s officially Fall and we’re officially feeling confident this industry is still going to finish the year strong.

In August we saw a slight uptick in the total number of homes sold across the U.S. with 533K which was 1.6% more sold listings than we predicted. This was a 4% increase from the number of homes sold in July. And while it was a 20% decrease YOY, we think we can officially, finally say that there is no way this market was going to keep pace with the last two years – and that’s OK.

When looking at the comparisons YOY you’ll see that we are currently settling in nicely somewhere between 2018 and 2019 so far, but as you’ll see below, we are still expecting to surpass them and land in between 2019 and 2020.

In September, we predict we’ll end the month at a 5% decrease from August’s totals with 506K, and then in October a slight decline to 502K.

So, all in all, it’s looking like it’s going to be a historically average year. And while of course there are still concerns around inventory and rates, we’ve already surpassed the totals we saw during the last crash, so we feel confident this year is just a reversion to the mean.

We are estimating that we’ll close out the year somewhere between 5.9 million and 6.3 million homes sold across the U.S. which still puts us above the years leading up the pandemic when we saw 5.86 million homes sold in 2019, 5.58 million in 2018 and 5.34 million in 2017.

So here’s your friendly reminder: You’ve got this. You are in control of your business. Stay the course and return to those fundamentals that have always made you great with the people who know, like, and trust you, and you’ll remain the person your clients turn to when they are ready to buy or sell.

See you next month.