Something’s gotta give – September MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor

Top things to know this month: 

  1. There were 486K homes sold across the US in August (an 8% increase from July & a 14% decrease YoY).
  2. The Home Sales Predictor for this month says we should see 446K home sales in September and 439K in October.
  3. The Fed held off on a rate hike, but rates won’t be coming down anytime soon they say.

Happy Fall 🍂 Hopefully the weather is cooling off wherever you are to actually feel like the crisp new season. Autumn’s arrival also brings with it back to school, college Football, and that last push before the seasonal holiday real estate slowdown.

In August there were 486K home sales across the US (sidenote: we predicted August within 1%). This puts August in line with 2017 home sales, which brings us up a little bit after being closer in line with 2016 for the last few months. Graph below.

Sept '23 Home Sales Predictor yearly

Looking ahead, the data coming in from this month’s Home Sales Predictor shows there should be 446K home sales in September (an 8% decrease month over month). Then looking to October we expect to see 439K (a 2% decrease month over month and only 3% decrease year over year).

MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor - Sep 2023

While a lot is still up in the air with macroeconomic factors, the Fed choosing to hold rates is helpful, but their prediction that rates will remain higher is definitely a tougher blow for real estate. The one thing we do know though is that real estate is always first in and first out. So, while rates may stay higher longer, we’ll see the softening before other industries.

It’s tough out there, but now is the time to educate your clients. There is still so much opportunity and it’s up to you to make it happen. Don’t let them drag their feet until next year. If they are thinking about a move, now’s the time.

Until next month.

Get a better read on the market with the Home Sales Predictor.

The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product. Delivered to your inbox every month, free.

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