Stability, is that you? April Home Sales Predictor

Top things to know this month:

  • Home sales are now hovering in the pre-pandemic 2018/2019 levels
  • According to the MoxiWorks Homes Sales Predictor, an 8 percent month-over-month increase is expected in April, pushing homes sales to 478K
  • The increase is expected to continue in May, with Moxi’s analysis predicting homes sales to increase another 15% to 549K
  • Real estate is always first in, first out during economic declines — we predict we are on the upswing

When we think back to March of 2019, it was pretty unremarkable. Sure, Apple launched AppleTV+ which ultimately brought us Ted Lasso, but otherwise not much worth noting. It was, however, the last March before the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, and therefore the last March in a ‘normal’ housing market.

Well, we have some good news to report. Home sales are back in line with March 2019, and the latest Home Sales Predictor shows home sales will maintain 2018 and 2019 levels for April and May.

The March Home Sales Predictor reported 435K home sales, just 2% shy of the actual recorded U.S. home sales of 445K. This puts us right in line with 2019 at 0.3% above March 2019 levels.

MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor April 2023

Looking ahead, we’re predicting an 8% increase month-over-month to 478K home sales in April and another 15% increase in May to 549K home sales.

So what does this mean? According to MoxiWorks CEO, York Baur, the market is finally ushering in some real signs of a return to ‘normalcy.

York Baur, MoxiWorks CEO“The trend in the Home Sales Predictor this month is showing the market is on its way to the stability and “normalcy” we all knew and loved pre-pandemic. While inventory-constrained markets remain an issue, consumers are adjusting to mortgage interest rates, and pricing should remain stable due to the low inventory.

Housing is always first in, first out, and we are starting to see inflation retreating and a seemingly less aggressive approach from the Federal Reserve after the recent banking crisis. It’s been a rocky road, but real estate’s pandemic hangover could finally be coming to an end.”

MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor April-May 2023

We certainly started the year down in 2016 territory, but we are climbing our way back up and not looking back. Of course, only time will tell, but we are cautiously optimistic and expect over the coming months we will continue to see improvement.

Until next month.

This data correlates user activity within MoxiWorks products to the predicted number of closed listings two months into the future. Learn more about, or subscribe to, the Home Sales Predictor.

Want more data? Here are the most recent Home Sales Predictor reports to catch up on:

Mar 2023 Home Sales Predictor

Feb 2023 Home Sales Predictor

Jan 2023 Home Sales Predictor