What Seasonality? Home Sales Hold Strong

What Seasonality? Home Sales Hold Strong

Summer is winding down in many parts of the country. Kids are going back to school while professionals head back to the daily grind. One thing not winding down? Home sales.

There were nearly 600K homes sold in July with 591K home sales, meaning our prediction was within 1%. While that is a 10% decrease in home sales from June to July and a 4% decrease YOY that is still a very strong month of home sales and it looks like it should stay steady over the next few months, really just throwing our usual seasonality for a loop.

So, what’s ahead for August and September?


Based on activity inside our MoxiWorks products we predict there will be a 2% increase in home sales in August with 601K homes sold followed by a 10% decrease in September with 538K home sales.

August MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor Graph

While that would mean a 9% decrease for September YOY, when comparing it to a more normal year like 2018 or 2019 that’s a 27% and 17% increase respectively for this time of year which definitely points to this wonky year of home sales continuing.

So, what about home prices?

The big thing we’ve been talking about around the virtual MoxiWorks lunch table this past month is less about the waning inventory (even though that is of course still a concern) and more about current home prices and interest rates. Interest rates are still at a record low, but, at some point, they will start to increase again as economic principles come into play. Until that happens this will remain a seller's market with record breaking home prices that are spooking buyers. Because these buyers are spooked another thing we are keeping our eye on is the increase in non-traditional home buying, i.e. iBuyers. Needless to say, there’s a lot happening and it will be interesting to see what these changes mean in the coming months. So how can you and your agents be ready?

Fall & Covid-19

We are of course not ignoring the Delta variant and what that might mean for the Fall and Winter months of home sales, but for now, our message remains the same. Protect yourself and your agents from whatever is coming our way by staying in flow with your sphere. Keep working for your future by staying in flow with your sphere now. If the last 16 months have taught us anything it’s that things can change at a breakneck pace and you don’t want to be left wishing you had kept your book of business fresh, nurtured and full of your future leads.

Until next month.

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