Bouncing Along the Bottom — August MoxiWorks Home Sales Predictor

Top things to know this month:  

  • There were 449K home sales across the U.S. in July (6% lower than MoxiWorks predicted) 
  • The Home Sales Predictor model is showing 486K home sales in August (8% increase month over month) and 461K home sales in September (a 5% decrease month over month) 
  • Housing inventory just hit its highest point all year (source: Altos Research via HousingWire)  

July was another predictably unpredictable month for real estate. For the first time all year, the number of homes sold in a month dropped below 2016 levels. We suspect that this drop is due to both typical Summer seasonality in conjunction with the macroeconomic factors this industry has been facing all year.

Year over year comparison 2016-2023

Looking ahead to this month and September according to the Home Sales Predictor things will pick up a bit in August with 486K home sales and then dip back down a bit in September with 461K home sales across the U.S. 

Home Sales Predictor - Aug 2023

When we gathered to discuss this month the consensus was, we’re not in a recession, but we’re not really recovering either. We’re sort of just bouncing along the bottom.

Saying ‘this mostly has to do with inventory’ is spinning our broken record round and round, but we all know the impact that is having. New data from Altos Research reported we just hit the highest inventory level all year, but they say this is due to the fact that mortgage rates are so high causing buyer demand to slow, not because of an increase in seller activity.

We’re hopeful that things will start to pick up more as we head into the Fall. Driving around the Seattle area even in the last few weeks it has felt like there has been a noticeable uptick in the number of For Sale signs… so maybe. Time will tell whether rates decrease enough to make both buyers and sellers more motivated. Or, if agents like you can educate buyers and sellers why they can still make a move.

What’s it like in your market? Are homeowners starting to poke around to see what’s out there. Have you had any success running through an annual property review with your clients and convinced them it’s the right time to sell? Respond and let us know what it’s like in your neck of the woods.

Until next month. 

The Home Sales Predictor is a set of prediction data that dives into the number of presentations created and the correlated number of U.S. home sales. This data is provided by MoxiWorks with insights from their MoxiPresent product. 

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